CLIMATE MIGRATION: A LAST RESORT OR AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY?

Based on the UN' S W ORLD M ETEOROLOGICAL O RGANIZATION 1 , by 2100, sea levels will have risen between 0.5 meters and 2 meters. States in the Pacific Ocean like Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands would likely disappear due to their low sea level of around two meters above the sea.

While nations are, currently, preoccupied with diverse global crises, they overlook the pressing issue of global warming and its devastating impacts on coastal nations. Because of this rise of the sea, people are migrating, or are predicted to migrate, somewhere else. They are commonly called “climate refugees”, people who “must leave their homes and communities because of the effects of climate change and global warming” 2 ( N ATIONAL G EOGRAPHY S OCIETY ) .

Albeit, there are some debates 3 about the term in regard to the 1951 Refugee Convention 4 , as it would imply they have a status of refugees. But people who migrated, due to climate change, have not been officially defined by international organizations like the U NITED N ATIONS or the IOM . Some researchers prefer “climate migrants” 5 or “environmental refugees” as labels. Based on the 2025 statistics of the I NTERNATIONAL D ISPLACEMENT M ONITORING C ENTRE , 13.6 million 6 people have migrated due to disasters. And if global warming worsens, the number of climate migrants would grow. Thus, is climate migration a means to adapt (I) to the changes on Earth? Or is it a sign that leaders are incapable of adapting (II) in the face of global warming? And finally, what can be done to prevent a bigger wave of climate migration (III)?

MIGRATION AS A MEANS TO ADAPT In general, international migration 7 consists of moving abroad, and it is considered a new hope for better living conditions, new opportunities, and a change in life. There is also internal migration, where one moves within their country for diverse reasons. Some climate migrants have moved away from their homes to maintain their work and businesses. Due to disasters, agricultors found their fields flooded and chose to continue their business elsewhere. 7 IOM, “Fundamentals of Migration” < https://www.iom.int/fundamentals-migration >. Accessed Sept. 31 2026. 6 I NTERNATIONAL D ISPLACEMENT M ONITORING C ENTRE , “ Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 ”< https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2026/ >. Accessed Sept. 30 2026. 5 I NTERNATIONAL C ATHOLIC M IGRATION C OMMISSION , “ What (And Who) Are Climate Refugees? ” (Nov. 26 2025) < https://www.icmc.net/2025/11/26/what-and-who-are-climate-refugees/ >. Accessed Sept. 30 2026. 4 OHCHR , “ Convention relating to the Status of Refugees ” < https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/convention-relating-status-refugees >. Accessed Sept. 31 2026. 3 C LIMATE AND M IGRATION C OALITION , “ Climate Refugees definition : Can we define a climate refugee? ” < https://climatemigration.org.uk/climate-refugees-definition/ >. Accessed Sept. 30 2026. 2 T HE W ISE A PPLE , “ Environmental Refugees ” (last updated Sept. 15 2026, N ATIONAL G EOGRAPHY S OCIETY ) < https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/environmental-refugee/ >. Accessed Sept. 30 2026. 1 C HARLOTTE D AWSON , “ When a country goes underwater: Island States fight for their future ” (Sept. 22 2026, UN N EWS ) < https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/09/1168398 >. Accessed Sept. 29 2026.

Yet, there are agricultors who have decided to adapt their flooded fields. Nonetheless, it requires a generous amount of funds to create a business venture adapted to climate change. Instead, in Kiribati, they choose to adopt a policy of “migration with dignity” 8 where they train people to become skilled workers before they can move abroad. Perhaps it is a means to fund their nation or to gain support of other nations to encourage aid. To add, numerous neighboring countries have supported these climate migrants with a special mobility visa 9 in the case of Australia for Tuvaluans, which marks their migration as a legal right. Finally, numerous states, like Fiji with the Vunidogola village, in 2014 10 , chose to relocate together as a community to protect themselves. In summary, migration is a way to adapt to the changes caused by global warming. Climate migrants choose to move abroad or within their country in hopes of being protected. But if people are forced to move, it could mean that their leaders have failed to protect them in the face of climate change. II. M IGRATION AS A SIGN OF INCOMPETENCE A majority would think people who migrate would be a sign of states’ weakness and their leaders’ failure to provide and protect their citizens. As migration, in general, means that people are looking for an escape from poverty, cruelty, or an oppressive system. But what about climate migration? Climate migration can be caused by a “sudden-onset disaster” 11 or a “slow-onset disaster” 12 ( T HE C LIMATE R EALITY P ROJECT ), and to prevent further damages, leaders are supposed to build plans to adapt and protect their citizens. But if people are migrating, it is a sign that states are not holding up to the Paris Agreement 13 . Which results in coastal states paying the price for polluter states. 13 UNFCCC , “ The Paris Agreement ” < https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement >. Accessed Sept. 31 2026. 12 Slow-onset disasters are defined as natural events that develop gradually, like sea-level rise, drought and more. T HE C LIMATE R EALITY P ROJECT , “ Climate Migrants ” < https://www.climaterealityproject.org/climate-migrants >. Accessed Sept. 30 2026. 11 Sudden-onset disasters are defined as natural events that can force people to migrate. T HE C LIMATE R EALITY P ROJECT , “ Climate Migrants ” < https://www.climaterealityproject.org/climate-migrants >. Accessed Sept. 30 2026. 10 UNFCCC, D ANIEL L UND , “ Addressing Loss and Damage through demand-driven and user-defined financing solutions ” < https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/3_WS1%20Case%20Study%20Presentation%20%20%20Fiji.pdf > . Accessed Sept. 31 2026. 9 L ILIANA G AMBOA AND D EBBRA G OH , “ Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union: The First Bilateral Climate Mobility Treaty ” (Sept. 9 2025, C ARNEGIE E NDOWMENT FOR I NTERNATIONAL P EACE ) < https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/09/australia-tuvalu-falepili-union-the-first-bilateral-climate-mob ility-treaty >. Accessed Sept. 31 2026. 8 ESCAP , “ KIRIBATI NATIONAL LABOUR MIGRATION POLICY ” < https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Kiribati%20National%20Labour%20Migration%20Policy.pdf >. Accessed Sept. 31 2026.

Based on Copernicus 14 , sea level has risen by a trend of 3.82 mm/year over 2015 to 2025, and it is worrying. Because it is rising more and more as states continue to release a considerate amount of greenhouse gases. Leaders of coastal States do not necessarily have enough funds to build preventive and protective measures. In summary, the sign of incompetence would be from states responsible for worsening global warming. And coastal states are left to fend for themselves with limited means against the impacts of climate change. Thus, people are forced to migrate for a chance at survival. But what actions can our leaders do in the face of climate change? III. T HE IMPACT OF LEADERS IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE MIGRATION What leaders can do to prevent more damage to coastal islands would be to cut greenhouse gases to keep the temperature as low as possible to prevent the increase of damage, invest in research to adapt and to create more solutions to withstand climate change, create better policies to integrate climate migration but also to protect climate migrants. Finally, COP leaders and international organizations should define “climate migrants”, and raise more awareness about the impacts of climate change on coastal islands. Which is why COP is the most important moment to exchange with leaders about climate migration. Especially since migration is an important topic in rich, northern countries as their leaders debate about migrants’ status, procedure and aids they can perceive. Ultimately, it is the leaders’ actions and decisions that can affect the future of coastal states. Because they are the ones at risk of climate change.

CONCLUSION Climate migration is a serious topic of concern that is being overlooked by leaders. Because it is a sign of smaller nations that are slowly dying from climate change. Islands are predicted to disappear, and with it, a piece of culture and history will be gone. Thus, climate migration is a sign that states don’t have means to prevent the disappearance of their country, and people are moving away to live. It doesn’t mean it is a way to adapt. It is survival by leaving behind memories and what they called home. 14 C OPERNICUS , “ Sea level ” < https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indicators/sea-level >. Accessed Sept. 31 2026.

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